مقالة بحثية موثقة هامة / الحقيقه في سيناء و من المسئول عنها! Freedom Voice Network /شبكة صوت الحرية

الثلاثاء , 10 يونيو , 2014

الحقيقه في سيناء و من المسئول عنها!
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في هذا التحقيق الاستقصائي حاولنا ان نصل للحقائق حول الوضع الأمني في سيناء و من المسئول عن تدهوره و من المسئول عن انتشار الإرهاب فيها. سنصل في النهايه بالحقائق ان القرارات الخاطئه التي اتخذها المجلس الاعلي للقوات المسلحه إبان الثوره المصريه عام ٢٠١١ بالذات و ما تلي ذلك من قرارات و تحركات خاطئه علي الارض من قبل المجلس الاعلي هي التي أدت للوضع القائم في سيناء، و سنتوصل كذلك بالحقائق و المصادر الثابته ان أصل الأمور يعود الي تعامل السيد مبارك و نظامه مع سيناء. لذا فالمسئولية الرئيسيه و من يجب محاكمتهم هم مبارك و المجلس الاعلي للقوات المسلحه بكل قياداته.

أصل المشكله ١٩٨٢
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مع انسحاب اسرائيل من سيناء عام ١٩٨٢ وفقا لمعاهدة السلام، بدأ نظام مبارك ينظر لبدو سيناء انهم متواطئون مع اسرائيل. لم يخف أهل سيناء ان حياتهم كانت افضل تحت الحكم الاسرائيلي. اهتم الاحتلال الاسرائيلي بالخدمات الاجتماعيه في سيناء حيث أقام مستشفيات و مراكز طبيه و مدارس بمستوي مشابه لمثيلتها في اسرائيل. كذلك كان يسمح لبدو اسرائيل بالذهاب للعمل في اسرائيل و الحصول علي مرتبات مرتفعة بالمقارنه بمصر بحكم ارتفاع مستوي الدخل في اسرائيل عن مصر.

اهتمت اسرائيل بأشياء طفيفه مثل ان يرسلوا موظف متجول مثلا لتجديد رخص القياده لكل قريه في سيناء، عوضا عن فرض ان يسافر البدوي مسافه طويله لنخل او العريش للتعامل مع بيروقراطية مصريه بطيئه لا شك بالمقارنه بالنظام الاسرائيلي. يحتوي المصدر الاول علي ورقه بحثيه في جامعه كاليفورنيا بيركلي عن تدهور احوال البدو المعيشية بعد جلاء الإسرائيليين.

أدت نظره الشك لدي مبارك تجاه البدو الي سلسله من القرارات التي منعتهم من دخول الجيش و الشرطه و منعتهم من تملك الاراضي. زاد الطين بله هو سياسه تنميه ساحل جنوب سيناء التي اعتمدت علي تهميش البدو و جلب العماله و توطينها من الوادي مما زاد من عداوه البدو تجاه القادمين الغزاه من الوادي.

تفجيرات شرم الشيخ و دهب ٢٠٠٤-٢٠٠٥
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أدت تلك المعامله السيئة و الشعور بالغبن لتشكيل جيل كامل يكره مبارك و يري في شرم الشيخ و من فيها انهم سارقون للأرض. مع نمو الانترنت ادي ذلك لتهافت شباب البدو نحو الجماعات الجهاديه السلفيه. نتج عن ذلك تفجيرات شرم الشيخ و دهب في ٢٠٠٤-٢٠٠٥ التي أدت لانهيار السياحه تماماً في شرم الشيخ و سببت حرجا ضخما لنظام مبارك إبان الحرب الأمريكيه علي العراق، و في وقت بدا نظام مبارك فيه مخلخلا. و قد نشر مركز أبحاث بروكنجز الامريكي الشهير تقريرا مطولا عن أسباب و نتائج تلك التفجيرات (المصادر).

تعامل نظام مبارك بأقصي درجات العنف مع البدو بعد تلك التفجيرات. اتبع سياسه الانتقام منهم. تم القبض علي الآلاف و تعذيبهم و ضربهم بدون محاكمه او أسباب. تم انتهاك البيوت و الحرمات. اخذ الكثير من شباب البدو علي عاتقهم واجب الانتقام من الحكومه و مبارك نتيجه لذلك.

العلاقات مع غزه ٢٠٠٧-٢٠٠٩
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تشغل قبيلتا السواركه و الترابين مساحات واسعه من شمال سيناء حيث تقع السواركه نحو الساحل و تمتد الترابين في الداخل. للقبيلتين امتدادا كبيرا داخل غزه و صحراء النقب. تسيطر قبيله الترابين علي جبل الحلال الذي يقع في نطاقها و هو جبل استعصي تماماً علي قوات الأمن المصريه التي حاولت اقتحامه تكرارا بعد هجمات دهب و شرم الشيخ.

مع بدء الحصار الاسرائيلي علي غزه في ٢٠٠٧ و تعاون مصر في تطبيق الحصار، تحدت الترابين و السواركه الحصار و شاركوا في بناء الانفاق مع امتدادهم العائلي في غزه.

وفقا للتقارير الأمريكيه فان تجاره الانفاق بلغت في عام ٢٠١١ حوالي ٣٠٠ مليون دولار. يجدر بنا ان نلاحظ ان عدد البدو هو ٣٠٠ الف مواطن. معني ذلك ان متوسط دخل البدوي من الانفاق هو الف دولار في العام لكل مواطن بينما متوسط دخل السيناوي هو حوالي ٤-٥ الاف دولار في العام. معني ذلك ان ربع دخل بدو سيناء تقريبا يأتي من تجاره الانفاق.

مع وجود الانفاق و تنامي الكراهيه تجاه الحكومه المصريه توافد مقاتلون من غزه للاقامه في سيناء و تدريب الشباب السيناوي علي القتال. كان معظم هؤلاء من جماعه جيش الاسلام و هي جماعه مناوئه في معظم الأحوال لحركه حماس في غزه. و هذا ثابت في المصادر الأمريكيه. يعني ذلك ان توافد المقاتلين من غزه و العلاقات معها ليست وليده د مرسي و لكنها ترعرعت تحت حكم مبارك شخصيا.

القرارات الخاطئه خلال الثوره المصريه في ٢٠١١-
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في يوم ٢٩ يناير ٢٠١١ ، و هو اليوم التالي لجمعه الغضب، اتخذ المجلس الاعلي للقوات المسلحه قرارا شديد الخطوره. قرر المجلس كما هو ثابت في المصادر ان ينقل الفرق الثانيه و السابعه و التاسعة مدرعات من أماكن تمركزها في سيناء و السويس و الإسماعيلية نحو القاهره للسيطره علي الوضع هناك.

يحتوي الجيش المصري علي خمس فرق مدرعه: الحرس الجمهوري، الثانيه، السابعه، و التاسعة، و الرابعه. و الرابعه هي احتياطي القياده الاستراتيجي. معني ذلك ان بحلول يوم ٢٩ يناير ٢٠١١ كانت كل الفرق المدرعه المصريه في القاهره و حولها ما عدا الفرقه الرابعه كاحتياطي لتأمين منطقه القناه.

كذلك للتعامل مع الوضع في قناه السويس نقل المجلس الاعلي قوات الصاعقه المرابطة في رفح و العريش نحو السويس للسيطره علي الوضع هناك، حيث لا تستطيع فرقه مدرعه ان تفعل ذلك بمفردها. انظر المصادر المرفقه.

ادي ذلك لوجود فراغ أمني كبير في سيناء. مع قدوم فبراير ٢٠١١ تمكن شباب البدو من اقتحام مركز شرطه العريش (قُتِلَ ١٠ من البدو في هذا الاقتحام) و إخلاء سبيل كل السجناء. في يوم ٩ فبراير ٢٠١١ أعلنت قيادات البدو ان سيناء تحت سيطرتهم (الفيديو مرفق) و انهم ضد مبارك و نظامه و الظلم الواقع عليهم لن يحدث مره اخري.

انسحبت الشرطه و الجيش إذن بشكل شبه كامل من سيناء مما ادي لخروج المعتقلين و التحصن في مواقع جديده و بسط سيطرتهم الامنيه علي سيناء بمساعده امتداداتهم القبليه في غزه.

تخبط المجلس العسكري ٢٠١١-٢٠١٣-
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خلال العمليه العسكريه نسر و بعدها العمليه سيناء لم يحاول الجيش المصري بشكل جدي أعاده بسط سيطرته علي سيناء.

في خلال العمليه نسر من يونيو ٢٠١١ حتي يونيو ٢٠١٢ قتل الجيش ١١ فقط من الإرهابيين. و لم يكن د مرسي قد ظهر إطلاقا في الصوره. كان الجيش المصري يتلكؤ في سيناء بالرغم من تفجير خط الغاز هناك مرات كثيره في تحد واضح للدوله المصريه. و لا تفسير لذلك الا اهتمام الجيش ببقاء القوات المدرعه في القاهره لأحكام السيطره السياسيه عليها، برغم من انهيار الأمن العام فيها.

بعد وصول د مرسي للحكم تم تطوير العمليه نسر لتصبح العمليه سيناء. من يونيو ٢٠١٢ حتي يونيو ٢٠١٣ قتل الجيش خلالها ٦٤ مسلح في سيناء. اي تقريبا ٦ أضعاف من قتلوا خلال حكم المجلس العسكري (المصادر).

هذا بالرغم من مقاله نيويورك تايمز في ٢٠١٤ التي كشفت بوضوح رفض السيد السيسي الاستجابه لضغوط د مرسي بتطوير العمليات في سيناء و تحججه انها ستنتج عنها ضحايا و ان الجيش لن يقوم بعمليات امنيه. بالطبع انتهت هذه الحجج في يوليو ٢٠١٣ حيث قام الجيش المصري منذ هذا الوقت بقتل ٢٨٠ من المسلحين و مات ٣٠ من المدنيين وفقا لبيانات الجيش المصري ذاته.

في ١٠ اغسطس ٢٠١٢ قالت ليلي فاضل مذيعه راديو امريكا الوطني انها ذهبت لقري سيناء و لم تجد اي دليل علي وجود عمليات فعليه للقوات المسلحه المصريه علي الارض. و بالطبع فان ارقام القتلي الان تفضح ذلك مما يؤكد ان الجيش المصري كان غير راغب في سحب قواته من القاهره.

بوضع اجزاء الصوره مع بعضها نري ان الجيش كان يتلكؤ في فرض الأمن في سيناء و انه تحت ضغط الرئيس مرسي تحرك اكثر من خلال حكم المجلس العسكري و لكن قطعا ليس بالصورة المطلوبه و علي عكس ما كان يدعي علنا.

الاستنتاج
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ليس هناك شك في ان القرارات الخاطئه لمبارك و التواطؤ الواضح من المجلس العسكري في سيناء هم مبررات كافيه ان يحاكموا بتهم الخيانه العظمي.

المصادر:
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الفروق بين السياسه الاجتماعيه الاسرائيليه و المصريه في سيناء: لماذا فضل البدو الاحتلال الاسرائيلي؟

http://www.academia.edu/1813701/Bedouin_in_Limbo_Egyptian_and_Israeli_Development_Policies_in_Southern_Sinai

تقرير معهد بروكنجز الامريكي عن تفجيرات سيناء و نمو الجماعات الجهاديه في سيناء:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2013/10/22%20sinai%20egypt%20israel%20hamas%20gold/22%20sinai%20hamas%20egypt%20israel%20gold.pdf

عدد و دخل البدو في سيناء:
http://knoema.com/EGDAT2008/egypt-development-indicators-2008?region=1000270-south-sinai&indicator=1000720-gdp-per-capita-ppp

دخل بدو سيناء من تجاره الانفاق و توافد المقاتلين من غزه لتدريب شباب سيناء في ٢٠٠٧:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/01/28%20israel%20sinai%20siboni/web%20%20analysis%2031%20edited.pdf

قرار الجيش المصري نقل فرقه المدرعة نحو القاهره خلال الثوره:
http://www.mako.co.il/news-specials/egypt/Article-64af2c4c648dd21004.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Revolution_of_2011#cite_note-112

ليلي فاضل مذيعه راديو امريكا الوطني انها ذهبت لقري سيناء و لم تجد اي دليل علي وجود عمليات فعليه للقوات المسلحه المصريه علي الارض:
http://www.npr.org/2012/08/10/158549062/egypt-accused-of-bogus-attacks

الوضع في السويس خلال الثوره:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116636/suez-egyptian-city-where-revolutionary-spirit-persists

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Revolution_of_2011

عدد القتلي من المسلحين و المدنيين خلال حكم المجلس العسكري و حكم د مرسي:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinai_insurgency

استيلاء بدو سيناء علي مركز شرطه العريش (فيديو):
http://www.arabawy.org/2011/02/12/jan25-sinai-citizens-storm-arish-police-station-liberate-detainees/

اعلان بدو سيناء في فبراير ٢٠١١ سيطرتهم علي سيناء (فيديو):
http://www.arabawy.org/2011/02/16/bedouins/

يحتوي الجيش المصري علي خمس فرق مدرعه:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Army

مقاله النيويورك تايمز عن رفض السيسي تصعيد العمليات في سيناء:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/25/world/middleeast/egypts-new-autocrat-sisi-knows-best.html?_r=0

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